Bet With Burr Oaks – Boxing Day Plays 12/26/21

Norwich v Arsenal

In case you haven’t watched EPL at all this year and you’re just reading this for some early morning degenerate plays, Norwich is BAD. Like 8 goals on the season and 17 matches played BAD. Norwich is an insult to dumpster fire. That said, I have no idea how Arsenal are currently sitting number 4 on the EPL table. If you haven’t been following along Arsenal is a mess right now. The club stripped Aubameyang of the armband, they don’t have a consistent starting IX, Pepe has been a ghost, but somehow they have managed a 3 game win streak and another advancement in EFL cup play.

Norwich’s whole offense is Teemu Pukki. I believe I mentioned that they only have 8 goals on the season. Pukki has scored 5 of them. Arsenal has a surprisingly stout on defense. Only allowing 1 goal in their three game EPL win streak. Pukki’s odds to score are in the +230 neighborhood and worth a look closer to game time. If you don’t mind the risk or play a lot of straight bets. However, the player for Norwich I think we should be focused on is Josh Sargent. Sargent has had at least 1 Shot on Target (SOT) in Norwich’s last 5 games in a row. He is currently +115 on Points Bet for a SOT and I love that number.

Arsenal is such a roller coaster ride every year. It doesn’t matter if you are a supporter or a gambler. Arsenal will make you want to tear your hair out. The only guys I can stomach betting on for them is whoever starts in the number 10 spot. That’s Emile Smith-Rowe (ESR) or Martin Odegaard. I have been riding the ESR SOT money train since match week 6. He has had 1+ SOT in 16/18 matches for Arsenal. His price is at an all time low right now unfortunately. However he has recently been converting those SOT into goals. He is currently on a 3 game scoring streak in EPL matches and has come on as a late sub in his last two games. If ESR is in the starting lineup, he is a must play for me. Odegaard has started the last 6 games for Arsenal and has 1+ SOT in each appearance. He has converted 3 goals in that 6 game stretch. Whoever starts at the XI spot has been a driving force for Arsenal and I expect that trend to continue.

My Plays:

Arsenal -1 spread bet +125

Sargent SOT +115

ESR SOT -154

ESR anytime +270

Odegaard SOT -154

Odegaard anytime +220

Brighton v Brentford

This is a great mid-table EPL match up for the afternoon game. Brentford is a recently promoted squad that is performing well and has a legitimate shot at staying up. Brighton isn’t really a memorable team. They don’t score many goals but they also don’t concede many. 

Brighton has 14 goals on the year. An average of 0.88 goals/match. They have given up 17 or 1.06 goals/match. I call Brighton the xG kings of EPL right now because they have been getting a lot of good looks and converting on very few of them. Their opponents have not been getting quality looks, but they have managed to convert against Brighton. Resulting in a very high xG disparity and implying a turnaround should be happening for the club. Neal Maupay has had 2 late game equalizers to help keep Brighton picking up points against West Ham 12/1 and Southampton 12/4. Maupay has 6 total goals on the year. Not a lot of juice on the Brighton side of the pitch being the home squad.

Brentford has been a pleasant surprise this year and I was looking forward to the match against Man U before COVID protocols postponed things. I thought Brentford was looking strong off their win at home against Watford. I am hoping Brentford’s form is still high this week while traveling to Brighton. I love the road dog juice we’re getting on this one. Brentford ML is currently +330. Draw no bet (DNB) is currently +215 and double chance is -125.

Brighton surprisingly have a better road record (2W 5D 1L) than home record (2W 3D 3L). Brentford has performed well on the road this year with a 2W 4D 2L record. Brighton is also scoring less and conceding more goals at home. They have scored only 6 and let in 9 in their own stadium, as opposed to scoring 8 and allowing 8 on the road. Brentford has managed to net 11 and give up 12 this year on the road. It also appears that Toney will be making his return to the Brentford lineup this week adding even more fire power up top for the road dogs.

My Plays:

Brentford DNB +215

Brentford double chance -125

BTTS yes -106

Brentford TT over 1.5 +290

Toney anytime +210

Mbeumo anytime +400

Written by: Burr Oaks (@BurrOaks77)

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