Good afternoon Lads,
We have 5 matches on deck today so let’s jump right in to my favorite.
Brentford v Watford
Brentford is coming home after failing to secure a W on back to back road games. A 12/2/21 Loss to Tottenham (2-0) and a 12/5/21 Draw with Leeds (2-2). It took the return of Patty Bamford for Leeds to snatch a 95’ equalizer to hold Brenford to a draw. If you’re a Brentford supporter, nothing could be more heartbreaking. Coming home sounds great for Brentford, but unfortunately they are 2W 1D 4L at home. They did manage to take 3 points off Everton in their last home game on 11/28/21.
Watford is on a 3 game losing streak and has lost 5 of their last 6. However they have been playing some top of the table teams like City (3:1 L) Chelsea (2:1 L) and a road loss to Leicester (4:2). The fact they have been able to get on the score sheet against City and Chelsea is encouraging if you’re a Watford supporter. Watford is 2W 0D 5L on the road this year.
Brenford is averaging 1.27 goals/game this year. They have scored 18 as a team and that is right in line with their xG of 18.7. Brentford is only allowing 1.4 goals/game and has let up slightly more than their xG against would account for. Watford is scoring 1.33 goals/game with 20 total on the season and an xG of 18.3. So slightly over-performing their metrics on offence. Defensively Watford is allowing 1.93 goals/game on the year.
So what does all this mean? In short, it means I like goals in this game. I am looking at Both teams to score (BTTS) and over 2.5.
Both teams have some injuries to watch out for. Toney for Brentford is currently listed as out with an illness and Sarr is out for Watford with a knee.
With that in mind, I am targeting Bryan Mbeumo as an AGS for Brentford. He has 2 on the season so far, but an xG of 4.6 making him due up. His shot volume is also in line with this idea. He has only failed to record 2+ shots 3 times this year. However he has failed to record a game with 2+ SOT.
I really like what I have been seeing from Emmanual Dennis on Watford recently. He has scored 6 on the year (3 in his last 4 games) and assisted on 5. He has started the last 5 games in a row and is averaging 2.2 shots/game in that span with 6 SOT. He has only failed to put a SOT in Matchweek 11 vs Arsenal.
If Watford want to come away with a road victory, they are going to need Joshua King to step up. He only has 1 shot and 0SOT in his last 2 games. It appears that King will be on PK duty with Sarr out. He took and converted on a PK in Matchweek 13 vs Leicester in that 4:2 loss I mentioned earlier.
My plays for this game:
BTTS Yes -125
I am probably not going to pick a side in this game. But if I was pressed, I’d probably back the road dog for the odds. Safest play would be Watford DNB riskier play is Watford ML. I also recommend you check out team totals o1.5 if you like either side. TTo1.5 for both squads is plus money.
Best of luck everyone! I hope to see you at the window!
Written by: Burr Oaks (@burroaks77)