Betting with Burr Oaks 12/12/21

West Ham V Burnley

If I was a more pessimistic person, I’d talk at length about how this is a classic West Ham
letdown spot. However, y’all already know that I like to keep everything Positive Vibes ONLY so
I’ll skip the history lesson. West Ham has to handle business today on the road if they want to
stay in the hunt for top 4. Burnley is a relegation team with 1 win and 14 goals on the season.
Man U’s win yesterday puts them right on West Ham’s heals in the #5 spot. If West Ham wants
to make the Champions League and play with the big dogs of Europe next year, they absolutely
can not drop games like this.

I had to look twice at this number, because I can’t believe that the sports books are hanging
+100 on West Ham. Today we hammer the Hammers!

West Ham is 4W 1D 2L on the road this year. They have scored 13 goals across those 7
matches (1.86/ game avg). West Ham has allowed only 7 goals on the road this year averaging
1 per match. Burnley’s lone win of the year has come at home. They are 1W 3D 2L so they do
show up and contend for points. Burnley have scored 8 goals at home and conceded 8. An
average of 1.33 goals/game.

So who’s going to get the job done for West Ham? The obvious answer is the big man from
Jamaica, Michail Antonio. He has 6 goals on the year and an xG of 5.4. He would have 7 if
VAR didn’t steal one away vs Brighton. (but I’m definitely not still salty about that) Another guy
to keep an eye on is Said Benrahama. He has 3 goals and 3 assists this year and has a ton of
talent. He can distribute and finish.

Burnley’s biggest threat up top is the New Zealander Chris Wood. He has 3 goals on the year
and an xG of 3.7 so he is slightly due up. If you like watching big physical strikers, this matchup
of Wood and Antonio is definitely for you. Maxwel Cornet is another name to keep an eye on for
Burnley. He has only had 8 starts this year but has managed to net 5 goals with an xG of 1.5.
He is way overperforming his metrics, but when you’re hot you tend to stay hot.
Other things I’m looking at for this match are player Shots on Target. Declan Rice just had his
SOT streak come to an end in the game vs Chelsea. Before that he was on a 3 match run of
form. Another guy to look at is Soucek. He has had a habit of hitting 1 SOT every other game.
Both him and Rice aren’t afraid to pull up and let shots fly. I think with how often West Ham
should be having possession in Burnley’s half of the field, these guys are definitely worth
keeping an eye on.

Plays for the game:
West Ham ML +100
Antonio Anytime +175 DK
Soucek SOT +115 PB
Rice SOT +210 FD (0.5u)

If you like bigger odds, I would definitely endorse an Antonio Wincast. If you really wanna take a
longshot id look at a SGP. Something like: West Ham ML + Antonio Anytime + West Ham TT
o1.5 + Soucek SOT.
Best of luck with the match, and thanks for reading. I hope to see you at the window!

Written by: Burr Oaks (@burroaks77)

Editors Note: Maxwell Cornett is doubtful for the match with a possible muscle strain. Bowen will most likely be replacing him and he is also having a solid year for Burnley. 7 G/A in 15 appearances. His xG is 4.76 with only 3 goals, as Oaks would say “He is due.”.

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